Back into EBAY again at close for a 2005 to 2006 swing trade. Happy New Year!
Closed remainder of my PWEI trade today. Average return for the position was +5.3%. Not sure what the sudden development was that pushed the stock up 9% in about 45 minutes on no news. Something is cooking... but I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth. My trade objectives have been far exceeded with this play. Now I move on to the next one.
for +2.7%. Trading has a nice tone this morning so I am backing the rest up with a stop and seeing where it goes.
Having an interesting time watching the market struggle to re-price FORD. (Forward Industries, not the carmaker)
This is the 2 day 1 minute chart of the only stock on my radar screen today. The market has been snapping up then captitulating later in the day. Too many traders in holiday mode!
GNSS rallied back nicely today. I hope for a continuation of the trend today.
I did not enter VPHM, but I will still be watching.
GNSS coming back in further. I still like the stock but this is painful. I am not into doubling down so I will probably just ride a bit. No news and huge drop smells like a year end unload by a HF or MF.
GNSS did not move up today unfortunately. It didn't really drop either. I will have to delve into the options volume data to try to guess which way it will go on Monday. But it isn't an incredibly heavily optioned stock, so maybe that had less effect than I originally thought. I felt I had this one pegged as an up day today, and the market predictably humbled me.
Ok, lots to say about this particular security. Apart from the good funamental picture for a stock buy for a short term swing trader with my current trading strategy, there's lots to interest me here, from the technical, fundamental, and common sense as a trader.
Ok so here goes.
Technical: I have a clean gap with steady support. Back testing gives a buy at close a good chance of success for a 24-48 hour swing trade. Market makers were forced to buy to absorb the unusually high selling interest in the face of the downgrade. They may have been buying to cover, or just buying outright. Typically, though the market makers are not going to buy at a unsteady, unsupportable price. If the MMs felt they needed to take this one lower to be safe, they would have.
Fundamental: I am buying the stock of a profitable (although B-player) supplier in the LCD HDTV market, which is likely to be a growth business over the next year, and one people have their eyes on as a potential Xmas present and Super Bowl purchase.
Trading: the stock is at a very high PE unless you are looking at forward earnings. Short interest is high, and I'm sure there are Hedgies with put options on this stock. I also feel as if I'm not alone in spotting this one, since there were some very large buy orders in the last 4 minutes of trading today. There were also some day traders in this one buying hoping for a snap-back (dumb move - sorry) that had to sell at the close to get out.
Now, and the most interesting part of the puzzle; the timing of the downgrade the evening before the last trading day before options expiration smells VERY fishy. I'm not accusing anyone of anything but could possibly someone or someone's buddy's trading desk have accumulated a high volume of in and out of money puts that maybe they wanted to unload while they still could???
Now the risk of this is I am buying the day before Witching (nuff said), and the downgrade price target was 16....
On the flip side, I took a very small position here, so this trade is not likely to break me.
This is the best one I saw today among many alternatives.
Check back tomorrow to see if I was right!
Nothing came up on radar today. NGAS was a stock of note, but the fundamentals of a convertible debt offering is to complicated for me to try to trade. I did well to avoid SIRI yesterday, seeing it took a nose dive. If it bounces down to the 6.85 level again it may be worth a try, but for now I am on the sidelines for that one.
Visited el Mall-o today with my wife to shop for her birthday present. Couldn't help but notice that the only store packed to the gills was the Apple store.
I closed out ATYT about an hour before the Fed policy meeting. Armchair quarterbacking tells me I could have made a little more, but I've been burned too many times holding stocks through a Fed announcement to take a chance. +3.9% isn't too bad for a 3 day trade, and not something I'm dissapointed about in the slightest.
Those who bought the breakout Friday got chopped off at the knees today. Tomorrow should be a telling move in SIRI...
Usually failed breakouts end up testing the support level which is between 6.90 and 7.10 depending on how straight your ruler is...
If it happens to go the other way we could be looking at a big move.
On the fundamental side, I am surprised how little advertising Sirius has done to position itself as "the gift" this holiday season. I saw one ad last night on the Survivor finale, but they should be everywhere with Howard Stern starting up in 1/06...
Not one I will be acting on today or tomorrow, but just getting filed for future use.
Trying to decide whether to close ATYT or not... Right now it is at +1.5%. I'm generally not into holding trades through the weekend, but there may be room to run on this yet. Regardless, I will exit prior to the Fed on Tuesday. I'll delay until 3 and decide then.
Opened ATYT trade a few minutes ago. ATYT dropped substantially today due to weakness in the chipset manufacturers in advance of INTC's mid quarter guidance. Entry 16.07 @ 3:58 pm. It seems as if ATYT is pricing in dissapointment in INTC's numbers, which builds in sufficient risk premium for me to give this one a whirl.
Closed SGTL for +4.3%. It might go up further but I called it at around 11am. I should send a thank you card to that analyst. This is with a relatively sloppy entry at 13.85 mid morning yesterday (I easily could have entered anywhere from .10 to 30 lower). But timing is rarely perfect in retrospect and these results are fine with me.