NFLX broke out this moring and the money is pouring in!
On the radar this morning are CELG, ENC, AMAT, and GLBL. As energy stocks continue to ladder up I am interested in trading - like swimming, it is always easiest if you are swimming with the current rather than against it (hence ENC and GLBL). CELG should get FDA approval next week some time for its new cancer drug which should be the catalyst to move it out of its current situation. But there was a downside breakout yesterday on low volume, so I'll need to be cautious. AMAT is on the radar because it has gotten ridiculously cheap. Sorry, semis aren't that bad and this business throws off cash like crazy.
The tape is really going against me today. Just to be safe, I've sold half my open holdings in NFLX for +7.1% (purchased on 9/22) and am tightening up the the stop.
Stopped out of AMGN for -0.2%. The market didn't want to cooperate, but I can't complain as I've made a clean relatively breakeven exit before the trade could go against me.
Made a play on this security at the close. Price has declined significantly over past 2 days. Security is in a solid sector that is relatively unaffected by the Fed. This is where I take advantage of my small size and nimbleness as an individual trader, and attempt to sell at open for a small profit. Notice how around 11 the stock has established a trading range between 80.30 and 80.60. This is where the stock has found support. There is a rise in volume at the close as daytraders who bought between 10 and 11 hoping for retracement of the early decline are selling because their rules don't allow them to hold overnight. You can hear them screaming as they take their loss. The market makers, hedge funds and I are gladly buying them out (at a discount to the established support level!) looking to scalp the traders for around a half point overnight, or just grab a nice entry in a solid security at the expense of the daytrading crew. If the stock gaps up tomorrow I will ride it with a moving stop as high as it will take me. If not, I will sell at the open and take my lumps. My stats on this type of trade are very good.
The market did not behave as I was hoping in OSX, and unfortunately I was not position to change the game plan. Had there been a slight retracement in oil service stocks, I would definitely have hopped on board, but that is not how it played out.
AAPL continues its rocketship ride up to the stratosphere this morning. Thank goodness I have continued to ride this winner up. It has been tempting to sell at a number of points this month.
At the end of the week, I recap my performance the previous week. I was busy over the weekend, so I am just now getting out the slide rule...
Looks as if the market is poised for a strong day (except for the energy sector, that is). Many of my long holdings are looking as if they will gap up this morning. Not much planned for intraday today. I may buy oil services towards the close if they manage to gap down without much upwards retracement...
Here's an example of one of the stocks on my watchlist for tomorrow. The less than expected damage from Rita may push this and other oil service stocks downwards. This could be a nice entry point to buy on the pullback, provided it shows some strength at a resonable support point. Other stocks in the same scenario that come to mind are BHI or HAL. They are all NYSE traded stocks however, which I generally don't trade, but I may make an exception next week. GLBL interests me as well, but NOV seems really attractive based on a Business Week article I read a week ago.
My blog and my trading is boring me at the present moment. Generally, this means I need to go to cash once again. I think I may sell a bit towards the close today into this mini-retracement so I can get a fresh post-hurricane start.
That is my and many other swing trader's conundrum right now. To buy the hurricane or not to buy... that is the question. Not a lot of precedent to tell what to do.
Market open seems mixed. Crude backed off a bit, and futures are up at the moment, although the street doesn't want to commit too much on the positive side thanks to the uncertainty before the Fed meeting.
As I am riding until tomorrow afternoon in cash , I am lamenting the dissappearance of Stephen Vita from the world of blogs. He is now entering the world of subscription stock-gurus. On the one hand, I am happy for him since he apparently feels he can turn his blog into a profitable enterprise.
While I am parked awaiting the Fed's rate decision, a discussion of safety is in order. My trading rules prevent me from buying and holding a new investment on a Friday, the day before a Fed decision, or the day before a significant market catalyst.
Aaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. My terminal is up and running again finally. I spent the last three days learning all about firewalls, trojans, and what can happen to your system if you aren't incredibly careful. But I was not in my happy place until about 7:15 pm. I am looking forward to tomorrow, when I can focus my attention just on trading once again!
Sold half my CELG stake at the open for +4.31%, profiting from the continued short squeeze in process for that stock.
NFLX behaving as predicted (-.7 today). The recenty rally appears to have been unsustainable and this one might test resistance levels soon, at which point I may contemplate an entry...
I've added recent return stats to the header in my blog. I am also contemplating adding portfolio holdings and trading data as well, but unfortunately I lack the time to figure these things out given my busy schedule of work, family, trading, and life. If you read this and would like to see any additions to this blog, please leave a comment!
Our favorite CNBC commentator opened with a piece recommending CELG today. Love when that happens. I don't follow his recommendations, but it sure is nice when he happens to pitch something that is in my inventory. Which means I can gladly offer it up for sale to one of his viewers tomorrow (at a fair markup from my purchase price, of course!).
Lightened my load of equities into the mini rally we had today, taking some profits in AAPL, XEC, and GLW.
Everything is looking nice for a trade today, but unfortunately I will not be here to monitor - have to leave and do some work today.
YELL is on my watch list today - it got hammered after hours last night and fell off the cliff this morning, which leaves some room for a pullback, but this may be too risky for me to try today.
I had a nervous moment today about energy stocks. Mostly because of all the money I've made. I don't want to give it back. I am going to unload more energy over the next few days, and use capital to make more short term trades.
One of the focuses for the market today is crude, once again up for the day. However, the big and less talked about issue coming up is the cost of home heating now thanks to the corresponding price in nat gas.
My long positions are for the most part running nicely. LGF made a surprise move based on the market digesting some strong insider buying of late.
ALTR has been slightly up to relatively flat this morning and had a downside breakout at about 10:30, but appears to be bouncing off support at about my entry price so the exit may not come until later.
CHK is doing a convertible stock issuance, which the market didn't like, so that position is taking a bit of a hit today. I may take my money and run at the open tomorrow.
Just pulled the trigger in a nice overnight setup on ALTR. I will sell at open tomorrow. Volume spiked at the close with other traders doing the same!!!
Crude oil dips yet again. Paradoxically, my energy holdings are all up, yet my tech holdings are down. Should I sell energy into this rally? Only concern is that my long energy positions act as a simple hedge against a high energy price spurred recession...
RUTH took a nosedive yesterday due to concerns regarding retail spending and the fact that two new restaurants under construction in the gulf area were reduced to toothpicks. I purchased a stake at the close yesterday and am unloading it as we speak. This stock is so thinly traded that I have to do so carefully so that I get out without sending the price into a tailspin. My orders have nudged the price downwards, but so far, I am still in the black.