Monday, August 08, 2005

Preservation of Capital?

Right now I have such a large percentage of my portfolio in oils I am getting nervous. If I were to buy GKIS now, I might end up with Kentucky Fried Chicken by the end of the day. My two oils reporting (XEC and FST) today were unimpressive given the street's high expectations. Still though, XEC held pretty close to the prior day's close. FST will react tomorrow since the announcement was after hours.

No trades today as the market was a little too unsettled for my taste. I did sell 40% of my stake in BHI since it surged for a 1.37% overnight gain. I will stay long the rest, and unload some of my drillers at the next sign of strength. I think that oil services will continue to strengthen and the near-monopoly of BHI in this area is a huge advantage and a guarantee of future earnings success.

Not sure yet how to play tomorrow. I feel as if there will be a bit of a rally in the last hour of trading. I would like to sell if there is a morning surge tomorrow. I would have sold more today, but there was too much weakness in the securities I want to lighten my exposure in.

Crunched my numbers in terms of successful day trades. I came to a very helpful discovery. It turns out my NYSE listed trades were 3 times as likely to be unsucessful as Nasdaq securities. And all of my large losers were NYSE listed securities. I am very excited by this - it is an easy fix that should have immensely positive results in my future profitablility. Factoring out my NYSE trades, my success ratio is 78% successful trades with an average of +.74% return. As I've used this particular trade strategy, my success ratio has consistently improved. Over the last 30 days, it is 80% successful with average return of .99%. Those numbers are fantastic. I just need to resist the temptation to try to apply my trading rules to NYSE stocks. Seems simple enough.

Tomorrow will be a crucial day to the upcoming weeks, and how the market performs will dictate what my strategy will be for the upcoming 2-3 weeks.


At 2:35 AM, Anonymous emini day trading said...

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