Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Fryolator or Lube Job?

Waiting with baited breath to see what happens to crude futures tomorrow. Some fundamental news that should have pushed futures higher did the reverse, slamming my energy holdings. This could be a momentary pullback, or the beginning of a major retracement that would send my energy stocks into the fryolator.

Of course if it ends up being a momentary pullback, and crude ticks up again tomorrow, my other holdings might end up taking that dip in the fryolator instead. It will take some discipline and careful trading to end up in the black this week. So far, I am eke-ing out a small gain on the week (which I should be immensely pleased with, but of course I'm not). For the moment, I've resisted the urge to sell into the weakness in energy today; instead selling my retail and some tech. I would very much like to sell into some energy strength tomorrow but we will see what happens. A certain CNBC personality was hitting the panic button on national TV tonight which may make things difficult for everyone. I'm not saying I disagree with the guy, but I am not looking forward to having dumb money get in the way of my objectives. I was already on the way to safety; with each sale I've made this week I've re-invested less and less, brining my portfolio to a greater cash position. But I refuse to jump with everyone else. If there is a major pullback tomorrow my cash position is good enough that I should be able to make purchases that will allow me to recover.

Lately I am of the feeling that we will enter a phase of at least 2-4 weeks where trading will be the simplest and most risk-free source of gains, so that's where I'm going.


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